A. DAVID MCDONALD
ANTHONY D.M. SMITH
ANDRE E. PUNT
GEOFFREY N. TUCK
ADAM J. DAVIDSON
An approach to incorporating new information using Bayes' theorem is applied to obtain estimates of expected returns from research on stock structure for determination of total allowable catch (TAC). Expected returns are measured relative to quantitative performance criteria that are inferred from fishery management objectives. Principles of the approach are outlined and a detailed case study of Tasmanian orange roughy is reported.